Newsletter 03/2025: Actual situation in international transport

Newsletter 03/2025: Actual situation in international transport

Chinese New Year is over. The subsequent start was a bit slower this year. However, the fall in prices was certainly seen as a positive for importers. Will the trend continue? We bring positive news on CBAM. But also a response to the current high congestion at the ports in the form of the introduction of a surcharge.

IMPORTS FROM THE FAR EAST

The annual shutdown of production and its gradual awakening to life in the Far East is over. The general expectation that there would be an adjustment in pricing after CNY has been fulfilled. However, the speed of the fall in prices was undreamed of by many. And so we witnessed that Tuesday morning's bid from Monday afternoon was not valid, and bid makers were cooling their overheated calculators and wondering when to send the bid so that it would not be too late, but not too early either.
 
No one has a crystal ball to say with certainty whether the trend will continue, stop or reverse.
However, we know from historical trends that as prices head down faster or slower, they subsequently head up. It is also still the case that we are in relatively volatile times and there is no change in the expectation that this year will also be volatile, i.e. in the sign of "up - down".
 
Of course, the shipowners are price and market sensitive and at least one of them has already been pragmatic and has reassigned his biggest ships to services other than the Asian-European ones where he simply makes more money.
The others will either do the same or deploy the popular "blank sailings".
 
https://splash247.com/msc-withdraws-megamaxes-from-asia-north-europe-trade/

It is difficult to predict exactly when the turnaround will take place. Last year, it occurred as early as the second half of April, when the "Christmas season" began in advance, as the global market feared longer transit times and other possible negative factors associated with the closure of the Suez Canal in December 2023. 

The Houthi ultimatum expired on 12 March and attacks on ships they consider Israeli should resume. The opening of the canal seems to have been delayed again.
 

 

Tariffs and their impact on logistics

When it comes to logistics, it is probably impossible not to mention tariffs. But the only thing that can be said with certainty is that they support what we mentioned in the previous topic. The (logistics) market likes predictability and clear conditions in order to be stable. This is quite difficult to do when the tariff is in force one day, suspended the next and doubled the third.
 
And since even the shortest leadtime imaginable commodity does not react to these changes, it is hard to outline here how the logistics market will change. The changes are already there, of course, and they are logical. Frontloading, which will create pressure for faster transport options in particular, because tariffs of course do not take into account the date of shipment, but the date of entry. Subsequent changes in purchasing and thus the flow of goods are obvious, but as you know changing the chain is not a snap of the fingers and it takes months to introduce a new one.
 


Important changes in CBAM -
What this means for your responsibilities?

In the context of administrative burdens, the word "reduction" has rarely been used in recent years. Now we have the opportunity to highlight the reduction of administrative burden in the CBAM reporting.

The changes are part of the European Commission's so-called Omnibus Package (26 February 2025) and bring about the following key changes in particular:

  • A new de minimis rule: Replacement of the current exemption for shipments up to €150 with a weight threshold of 50 tonnes of goods per year. This change should enter into force just three days after the publication of the Regulation in the Official Journal of the EU.

  • Modifications to the methodology for calculating and verifying emissions: refining the calculation of emissions in imported goods to incentivise manufacturers to reduce emissions.

  • Strengthening customs controls: Increase emphasis on risk-based controls to prevent circumvention.

  • Other key changes: New options for delegating CBAM declarant responsibilities, rules for CBAM certificates (postponing the obligation to purchase a certificate, clarifying verification of emissions data, setting standard values for the carbon price payable and adjusting penalties.

Please note that this is a draft revision expected to be adopted during 2025. The full draft revision can be found here. We will inform you of the adoption of the proposal once all changes have been specified.

This simplification is a first step towards the future extension of CBAM to other sectors covered by the EU ETS and downstream commodities. It is expected that a new legislative proposal will be presented in early 2026 to extend the scope of the CBAM and adjust its rules, in response to the results of the CBAM assessment report to be carried out in 2025.


Introduction of a surcharge 
on the traffic load/Congestion Surcharge

It is also our duty to inform you of the introduction of the Congestion Surcharge from 1 April 2025 by the rail operator . It applies to all European ports except Gdansk. We will of course have it included or listed in our offer and its current amount of 5EUR /TEU is not essential in terms of the overall price. However, why we consider it important to inform you about the surcharge is the reasons leading to its implementation, as well as the fact that its amount may change according to the development of the situation.

These are the long-term and increasing complications in pan-European rail transport, which have a significant impact on operating costs.

We have these planned closures ahead of us:

  • March-May 2025: Bad Schandau - Schöna, restrictions on the main route to/from German ports and Benelux.

  • First decade of July 2025: complete closure of the arrival at Waltershof Hamburg station, preventing access to the CTB, CTA and Eurogate marine terminals. The accumulation of containers handled via these terminals must be taken into account; it will naturally take longer to return to normal operations.

  • August 2025-April 2026: overhaul of the Hamburg-Berlin rail link, all rail services will be moved to alternative diversionary routes, which do not have sufficient capacity. In addition, passenger and freight traffic will be shared. Significant impacts on our service can be expected. Difficult to predict diversion routes with limited capacity will mean longer transport times and an overall reduction in the quality of our service.

Terminal congestion:
Increased costs due to congestion at inland terminals, including cancellation of train routes and missed tractor-trailer deliveries.

Increase in operating costs:
Long-term and increasing complications in pan-European rail transport.

 A buoyancy vest for containers?


Very interesting idea - basically a "life jacket" for containers.
 
It could be particularly useful for transporting dangerous cargo and for marine pollutants. Both from an ecological point of view and from the point of view of saving the goods themselves. We shall see if and how quickly the idea takes off.
 
And what does it look like? An illustration in this video.



Other articles

Newsletter 02/2025: Actual situation in international transport

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Riding the waves of globalisation: 20 years of container transport from China to Europe

This year we are celebrating 20 years since our founding. It's a good time to take a look back at where shipping has moved in the last two decades.

Newsletter 01/2025: Actual situation in international transport

We are always much happier when we can inform you about happy and positive events and trends in logistics. These have been plentiful in the past year. We are therefore delighted that the new year 2025 and its progress so far allow us to write this newsletter as a list of mostly good news. We wish that this year develops in such a spirit for you.

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